The trucking industry faces a variety of challenges in the current market. From implementation of new technology to insure regulatory compliance, to the state of highway infrastructure affecting driver efficiency. However, the top concern for most industry leaders in commercial haulage is that of driver shortage. 

It's a subject of fierce debate. There are conflicting opinions as to the severity of the situation, with some denying that there is a shortage at all. What is clear is that the potential consequence of a shortage could have long term consequences — not just for the immediate supply chain, but also for the broader economy. 

So, what is the state of the trucking industry as we head into 2020? What aspects are still affecting driver numbers in the current market? If there is indeed a shortage, are there immediate solutions?

Retiring Truckers

One of the primary issues affecting ostensible driver shortages is the current state of turnover. The demographic of drivers skews toward those of a more mature age, many of whom are retiring. Unfortunately, fleets are reporting that they are not seeing sufficient numbers of young drivers entering the market to replace them. This leaves a personnel gap that many find concerning. 

Just how serious is this particular issue? Well, the American Trucking Associations (ATA) has predicted that if this trend continues without change, there will be a shortage of 105,000 drivers by 2023. This particular issue is also reported to not be unique to the US, but is also prevalent in Europe, Mexico, and China. 

As this continues to be an issue heading into 2020, there are concerted efforts being made to address it. Making long distance driving a practical option for young drivers is one option, and the ATA is lobbying for legislation allowing 18-20 year olds to drive interstate, rather than within the lines of their home state. It is also believed that it could be important to highlight elements of the haulage industry that speak to the preferences of the rising Millennial workforce. Drawing attention to self management, widespread utilization of technology such as SmartRide devices, and opportunities for travel could improve recruitment rates.  

Driver Pay issues

Perhaps one of the most contentious issues surrounding the subject of potential driver shortage is that of salaries. While there are suggestions that commercial drivers are no longer being attracted due to lower pay, fleet owners maintain that they continue to provide some of the most competitive and stable financial remuneration across all industries. 

While the salaries received by truck drivers may be comparatively high, at an average of $1,105 per week, employees tend to dispute that this is adequate compensation for the job. Truckers are often subjected to high levels of stress, with pressure coming from both dispatchers and clients, and long periods spent in isolation on the road. There are sometimes significant expenses, such as fuel and adequate auto insurance. The job can also be dangerous, with certain loads requiring drivers undertake in-depth CDL hazmat practice in order to obtain an endorsement on their license. Drivers argue that the conditions under which they work require significantly higher rate of recompense. 

That's not to say that fleet owners aren't making efforts to address pay disputes. Many companies are recognizing that driver retention may depend on arranging packages which provide not simply higher wages but also improved work/life balance. The National Transportation Institute reported that while increases in salary slowed a little in the first quarter of 2019, they remained substantial. It remains to be seen whether companies will continue to provide adequate packages to drivers, and whether this will affect retention rates in 2020.   

Interpretation of Department of Labor Statistics

When it comes to predicting the future of industry numbers, it can be useful to look at the fluctuations in statistics. However, the information provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests that the issue isn't quite as clear cut as a simple shortage of drivers. In fact, the numbers provided have been used to decry the panic surrounding the issue as erroneous. 

Popular interpretations of the Department of Labor statistics assert that while there appears to have been consistent turnover rates during the past few decades, this is in line with those experienced by the majority of blue collar industries. The Bureau of Labor Statistics goes on to suggest that there is little need for concern, that the workforce will respond to price signals, and that "there is not, and has never been, a serious shortage of people willing to work as truck drivers." 

However, these statistics seem to be at odds with those obtained by industry bodies such as the ATA, who arguably have a more nuanced insight into the sector. While there may not be a shortage of people willing to work in the industry, this doesn't take into account the legislative and regulatory changes occurring, and therefore isn't an indicator of how many people will continue to be qualified or able to operate as commercial drivers in the years ahead. 

Conclusion

Our ability to predict whether trucker shortages will continue into 2020 is made more difficult by the controversy surrounding the subject. There are certain indicators which show that drivers are not consistently satisfied with their compensation, and that younger drivers are not being attracted to the industry to replace those retiring. However, some fleet owners and government departments assert that there is no significant shortage. Either way, as trucking continues to be a key indicator of contributor of the nation's economic health, it behooves industry leaders to pay close attention to the issue.